Boost Deep Decarbonization Now: New Hamburg Climate Report Reveals Vital Steps for Achieving Rapid Carbon Cuts Through 2050+

Experts illuminate an attainable vision of a sustainable, carbon-neutral Hamburg by 2050 through grounded pathways detailed in the Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023. Consider its recommendations to strategically decarbonize through renewable energies, green transit, efficient buildings and new jobs as you plan your own role in supporting a livable future.

By exploring decarbonization pathways and stakeholder cooperation, researchers deliver an actionable yet hopeful envisioning of a carbon-neutral Hamburg by 2050. Insightful modeling examines emissions reductions economy-wide and recommends mobilizing all actors for systemic solutions.

Readers gain an understanding of policy packages, technological milestones and lifestyle adjustments essential to stabilizing planetary warming. Engaging narratives spotlight untapped possibilities of green transit, housing and jobs given political will and mass participation.

This comprehensive outlook bolsters climate leadership globally by demonstrating deep decarbonization’s technical and economic feasibility when experts, governments and citizens work in concert. Its evidence and values empower all to claim our highest climate future.

Genres

Environmental science, sustainability, policy analysis, renewable energy, climate change, urban planning, economics, engineering, future studies, activism

Recommendation

Researchers from the Cluster of Excellence program CLICCS (Climate, Climatic Change and Society) have assessed the possibility of limiting global warming to 1.5°C higher than preindustrial levels. They find that social and natural-world trends make achieving that goal unlikely. They analyze climate threats, including deforestation and melting ice sheets, and offer detailed analyses of trends in fossil-fuel divestment, consumption and climate protests. CLICCS offers steps to limit warming to below 2°C, an achievable goal.

Take-Aways

• Nations will not meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature targets.
• Social drivers play essential roles in attaining climate goals.
• Physical processes will have at most a moderate impact on meeting temperature goals.
• Climate action should include sustainable ways of adapting to the consequences of climate change.
• Interplay between social and physical conditions will determine whether the world stays within the Paris Agreement’s goals.

Summary

Nations will not meet the Paris Agreement temperature targets based on worldwide deep decarbonization achievement

The nations participating in the 2015 meeting of the UN’s Conference of the Parties (COP21) on climate change proposed limiting further average global warming to less than 2°C [3.6°F] higher than preindustrial temperatures, in the Paris Agreement plan. It also established an aspirational target of less than 1.5°C [2.7°F] of warming.

The 2023 Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook report evaluated the “plausibility” of reaching the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals by analyzing 10 “social drivers” of decarbonization, such as climate litigation, fossil-fuel divestment and protest movements. The report’s researchers analyzed “physical processes” that associate with climate change – including, for example, permafrost thawing and other phenomena.

“Climate action is both a global challenge and a regional and local endeavor.”

Meeting the Paris Agreement’s temperature targets depends on achieving worldwide “deep decarbonization” – net-zero carbon emissions – by 2050. Although most social drivers support some decarbonization, they do not support deep decarbonization.

The report assesses physical processes, all with varying impacts – from trivial to moderate – on achieving the temperature goals. The authors conclude that under the current conditions, reaching deep decarbonization by 2050 is unlikely. However, if society accelerates its pursuit of climate action, the world may well reach the goal of staying below 2°C of warming.

Social drivers play essential roles in attaining climate goals.

Previous reports from the UN Environment Programme and other organizations assessed the practicality and potential effectiveness of deep decarbonization proposals. The present report addresses the likelihood that society will enact these proposals.

“Several measures to relieve consumers and industry from rising energy bills effectively take the form of fossil-fuel subsidies.”

This report’s “Social Plausibility Assessment Framework” examines 10 social drivers. Seven support decarbonization, but not deep decarbonization:

1. United Nations climate governance – This driver involves state-led activities under the aegis of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Factors bolstering this driver’s influence include a rise in climate protests, climate legislation by the United States and European Union, and the emergence of climate-supporting governments in some countries, including Australia and Brazil.
2. Transnational initiatives – These new structures of climate cooperation transcend traditional state authority and function within the public and private spheres. They involve a variety of entities, including cities, regions, businesses, investors and research institutions. Their activities include developing standards for climate-change-mitigating initiatives, such as emissions trading and “ecolabels.” This driver could become a force for deep decarbonization if its proponents attract increased participation from high-emission sectors and countries.
3. Climate-related regulation – This includes regulations and legislation from a variety of bodies, such as state governments and multinational associations, that strive to restrict or lower atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Rising energy prices impede the efficacy of this sector.
4. Climate protests and social movements – This driver includes public protests and grassroots activism. While it will have little influence in the near term, over time it may build public support for deep decarbonization. Public anxiety about “energy security” undermines this driver’s effectiveness.
5. Climate litigation – This sector involves lawsuits that promote decarbonization and support the climate-justice movement. Climate litigation activities could rise globally. However, in the United States, they face the impediment of the Supreme Court’s conservative majority.
6. Fossil-fuel divestment – Investment in fossil fuels remains profitable due to high demand and government subsidies. Divestments are increasing slowly, and governments plan to continue investing heavily in coal, oil and natural gas. A burgeoning market for environment-friendly financial products could boost the trend toward divestment. In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, governments may seek to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels.
7. Knowledge production – “Packaged knowledge” provides climate data that can shape decision-making on decarbonization issues.

These social drivers hamper decarbonization progress:

1. Corporate responses – Although companies increasingly make net-zero pledges, few advance decarbonization. Transnational initiatives or alterations in global consumption patterns could influence change. Relevant transnational movements include the Science Based Target initiative (SBTi) and the Race to Zero Campaign of the UNFCCC.
2. Consumption patterns – This driver incorporates the spending habits of various demographic groups within a range of product and service categories. Currently, growth-oriented economies promote a high level of carbon-intensive consumption. Environmental advocates support efforts to make consumption more climate-friendly through such mechanisms as energy efficiency, increased use of renewable energy sources and behavioral changes. However, these actions must compete with wealth inequality and the predominance of growth-based, fossil-fuel-reliant economies and political systems.

One social driver – the media – is not in either the enabling or constraining camp. Online media have facilitated websites on which experts publicize up-to-date research and data on climate change.

“Weather extremes and a high fire regime will become the new norm in Amazonia, which could shift toward a savanna-like vegetation with devastating impacts on the ecosystems.”

Traditional journalism has lost its function as an arbiter of information. An increasing number of alternative media sources have arisen, including social media. Some unconventional outlets eschew professional journalistic standards and promote “nationalist, populist and anti-science worldviews.”

Physical processes will have at most a moderate impact on meeting temperature goals.

These physical processes have scant impact on global surface temperature, and are not significant factors in the plausibility of meeting the Paris Agreement’s temperature targets:

1. Arctic sea-ice decline – The rapid increase in loss of seasonal sea ice in the Arctic is likely to have little direct impact on meeting the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals. However, this phenomenon threatens the region’s people and animals.
2. Polar ice-sheet melt – This phenomenon has little direct effect on global mean temperature. But significant melting from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets will likely become the main contributor to mean sea level rise across the globe.
3. Regional climate change and variability – Variations in phenomena like the polar vortex, the jet stream and planetary waves can influence the dynamics of extreme weather events. The consequences will vary in different regions. Temperatures in some regions may surpass the 1.5°C or 2°C targets, while the global average temperature remains within the bounds of the Paris Agreement.

These processes will have moderate effects on global surface temperatures:

1. Permafrost thaw – Experts expect the warming permafrost in the northernmost latitudes to release volumes of the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 (methane). But by 2050, the amount released will equal only about one year of anthropogenic emissions. The thaw will pose serious threats to the region’s people and wildlife. With continued warming, permafrost carbon emissions could become a trigger for precipitous climate change.
2. AMOC instability – The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation – “the main transport mechanism of heat and substances in the Atlantic Ocean” – is likely to weaken in the coming decades. A weakening AMOC would remove less heat and CO2 from the atmosphere, increasing the difficulty of reaching the Paris Agreement’s temperature targets. The pace of weakening is not fully dependent on emissions levels, so the report draws no conclusion regarding how failing to meet Paris Agreement goals would affect the AMOC.
3. Amazon Forest dieback – As it experiences deforestation and forest degradation, the Amazon Forest is becoming less adaptable. But Amazon deforestation imposes only moderate constraints on the likelihood of staying within the Paris Agreement’s temperature limits.

Climate action should include sustainable ways of adapting to the consequences of climate change.

Because attaining deep decarbonization by 2050 is unlikely, societies must explore plans for blunting the harmful effects of warming.

“Climate action is the combination of mitigation and adaptation measures that averts, minimizes and addresses climate-change-related losses and damages.”

Assessing the plausibility of adaptation schemes requires a thorough analysis of conditions and characteristics in various environments like coastal regions, urban environments and rural areas.

In coastal regions, adaptive measures could include rebuilding eroded beaches, maintaining estuaries, and installing dykes that adjust to variable sea levels.

Urban areas must contend with the “urban heat island” (“UHI”) effect, which renders cities warmer than surrounding areas. Expanding the number and size of reflecting surfaces and enhancing green spaces could combat UHI. In rural areas, coping with extreme weather events is a primary concern. During droughts, farmers must adopt approaches such as “emergency irrigation” and reduced herd sizes.

“Global-warming-induced changes in the dynamics of all six physical processes have extensive effects on regional hydrological cycles, ecosystems’ resilience or communities’ well-being.”

More extensive and sustainable adaptation could include promoting healthier diets, making a transition to renewable energy sources, restoring peat land carbon sinks, and reshaping agricultural production and trade practices.

“The plausibility of attaining the Paris Agreement temperature goals depends also on climate sensitivity, which in turn depends on the complex interactions and feedback mechanisms in the climate system.”

CLICCS researchers are designing an assessment framework to analyze the plausibility of various adaptive approaches, and will include those assessments in future editions of the Climate Futures outlook.

Interplay between social and physical conditions will determine whether the world reaches the Paris Agreement’s goals.

Under current trends, little likelihood exists of reaching deep decarbonization or limiting warming to 1.5°C over preindustrial levels. However, keeping temperature rise below 2°C can happen if humanity overcomes a range of obstacles, such as inadequacies in the implementation of climate regulations. Public pressure, litigation, global initiatives and global regulations that take social justice into account can help society reach this goal.

“Some Indigenous and local ways of knowing can provide examples of sustainability and can be valuable resources for policy and regional dynamics, such as the protection of permafrost soils via reindeer management.”

The driver assessments suggest that the interplay between social and physical conditions is the fundamental determinant of whether the world reaches the goals of the Paris Agreement. Humanity could potentially transform societies to make the Paris Agreement’s scenario plausible. Societal injustices and inequalities may derail efforts to reach deep decarbonization by 2050.

Necessary conditions for global cooperation on deep decarbonization include an end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a reduction of tensions between the United States and China. The Russian attack, and its effects on energy security, could open an opportunity by providing national leaders and high-emissions corporations with motivation to scale down their reliance on fossil fuels. Cultivating public pressure through climate protests and litigation can nudge leaders to act.

“Human agency is key to create and strengthen the enabling conditions of social drivers toward deep decarbonization by 2050.”

Other necessary initiatives include supranational pro-climate legislation and new laws and policies that address social inequalities and unsustainable consumption conduct. Businesses must reconfigure their production operations, and the financial sector should create frameworks for profiting under deep decarbonization.

Knowledge producers can help by calling out inequalities and injustices. The climate protest movement should acknowledge the climate change perspectives of Indigenous people and others outside the Global North.

About the Author

Researchers from an array of fields at the Cluster of Excellence CLICCS (Climate, Climatic Change and Society) study the relationships between climate and society. Universität Hamburg’s Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN) coordinates the CLICCS program in conjunction with partner institutions.

Read the study here: Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook ’23