How Did Joe Biden Prevent the War in Ukraine From Becoming World War III?

Why Did US Intelligence Believe Putin Would Invade Ukraine When Others Didn’t?

Discover the inside story of the Biden administration’s response to global crises in Bob Woodward’s War. Learn how the White House navigated Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict to prevent wider escalation. Want to know what really happened behind closed doors in the Oval Office? Continue reading to uncover the secret diplomatic moves that kept the world from the brink of nuclear war.

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Shortly after the United States left Afghanistan, Russia’s Vladimir Putin launched an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. The next year, Hamas unleashed a bloody attack on Israel. Both conflicts threatened to pull America into new wars. But President Joe Biden used a forceful yet steady hand to keep the conflagrations in check, prominent journalist Bob Woodward reports. History in a hurry has become Woodward’s calling card, and his latest effort doesn’t disappoint. War takes readers inside the Oval Office, offering a gripping behind-the-scenes look at how decision makers worked to stave off World War III.

Take-Aways

• Ukraine was a political hotspot long before Vladimir Putin ordered troops into the region.
• Putin spent the COVID-19 pandemic ruminating about Ukraine.
• Stung by the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, President Joe Biden vowed Putin would not catch America off guard in Ukraine.
• Biden acknowledged that the United States hadn’t responded forcefully enough to Putin’s past provocations.
• On February 24, 2022, Putin began his invasion.
• In October 2023, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel.
• Biden strongly discouraged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from attacking Hezbollah.
• After Biden staved off a preemptive attack on Hezbollah, his administration turned toward softening Israel’s response to the invasion.
• As Biden leaves office, both conflicts remain unresolved.

Summary

Ukraine was a political hotspot long before Vladimir Putin ordered troops into the region.

Ukraine’s budding democracy commanded the attention of American voters in late 2019 when the US House of Representatives impeached then-president Donald Trump. The articles of impeachment accused Trump of attempting to coerce Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy into investigating Trump’s political opponent, Joe Biden, by threatening to withhold security aid. However, America’s political interest in Ukraine began years earlier. When he was vice president in the Obama administration, Joe Biden routinely phoned Ukraine’s president and prime minister. Biden urged these leaders to stay on the path of democratization and to rein in corruption. Pentagon insider Dr. Colin Kahl recalls how Biden employed a “big hugs, little punches” approach in his dealings with Ukrainian leaders: offering support against Russian interference while nagging them to improve.

“Ukraine played a dramatic, outsized role in American politics.”

Biden wasn’t so diplomatic when it came to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who actively opposed Ukraine’s Westward shift. When Biden participated in an ABC interview in March 2021, the interviewer asked the new president if he viewed the Russian leader as a “killer.” “I do,” Biden answered. Putin responded by yanking Russia’s diplomat from Washington, DC. By the next month, US intelligence officials could see that Putin was amassing troops on the Ukrainian border. On April 13, when Biden and Putin spoke by phone, Biden warned Putin against military action in Ukraine.

Putin spent the COVID-19 pandemic ruminating about Ukraine.

In July 2021, Putin issued a 5,000-word manifesto about Russian history. He argued that Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus were not separate countries but one nation descended from Ancient Rus. Putin asserted that Ukraine had no distinct culture or language, and he accused its leaders of conspiring with the West against Russian interests. American intelligence officials saw the conspiracy-theorizing as fallout from Putin’s austere self-isolation during the pandemic. Putin was so fearful of the virus that in-person visitors were required to quarantine for two weeks. Putin surrounded himself with nationalists who echoed his beliefs.

Putin’s thinking made little sense to outsiders. He claimed Ukraine was run by “neo-Nazis,” even though its president was Jewish. Though aware of Putin’s fixation on Ukraine, Biden had bigger problems in mid-2021. He was following through on a deal Trump had made with the Taliban in 2020 to end the two-decade occupation of Afghanistan by US troops. After weighing the risks of a quick, comprehensive withdrawal of US forces versus a staggered one, Biden decided to move ahead with the plan to execute a complete withdrawal. The Taliban swept through Afghanistan and in August took Kabul. On August 26, 2021, a suicide bombing claimed 170 lives, including those of 13 American soldiers. The chaotic withdrawal emboldened Biden’s critics. Despite being the architect of Biden’s course of action, Trump urged Biden to “resign in disgrace.”

Stung by the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, President Joe Biden vowed Putin would not catch America off guard in Ukraine.

Just two weeks after Kabul fell to the Taliban, Biden quietly authorized $60 million in weapons for Ukraine. In September 2021, Zelenskyy visited Biden in the White House. He pushed Biden to support Ukraine’s bid to join NATO, but Biden was reluctant; Moscow would see US support as antagonistic. By October 2021, the Pentagon was sure that Putin planned to invade Ukraine. A tipster inside the Kremlin confirmed that Russia was about to send 175,000 troops into a sovereign nation.

“Putin’s assessment was that military action would be the best option to prevent Ukraine from integrating more with the West.”

In a meeting with intelligence officials, Biden acknowledged the evidence that Putin was about to invade. But Biden couldn’t make sense of it: Historically, Putin was not prone to risky action, and he had no obvious impetus to invade. But Russia’s leader wasn’t concerned about Western sanctions or other consequences that might hurt the Russian people. Putin’s agenda was paramount, and he believed most Ukrainians would welcome the invading troops as liberators. Biden advised his military advisers to look for ways to prevent the invasion and to prepare to respond swiftly and decisively if it occurred. In late October, during the G20 summit in Rome, Biden told the leaders of the United Kingdom, France, and Germany about Putin’s plans. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson called Putin and told him not to invade.

Biden acknowledged that the United States hadn’t responded forcefully enough to Putin’s past provocations.

After Russia took over the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, the West had dithered. “Barack never took Putin seriously,” Biden confided to a close friend. “That’s why we are here.” Biden was not going to make the same mistake. He sent Bill Burns, the CIA director and a former ambassador to Russia, to meet with Putin in person. If Putin went through with the invasion, Burns warned, Russia would face swift, severe sanctions: The West would expel Russian banks from SWIFT, a communications network used by banks globally, and aid Ukraine in its self-defense. Burns was unsurprised by Putin’s dismissive response, in which he reiterated his belief that Ukraine’s sovereignty was a fiction. Burns tried another argument: “With a force of 180,000 to 190,000, how are you going to control a country of 44 million that doesn’t want to be controlled by Russia?” Putin didn’t respond.

Burns relayed the details of his conversation with Putin to Zelenskyy by phone. Meanwhile, Biden’s Secretary of State, Tony Blinken, met in person with Zelenskyy during a climate change summit in Scotland. Blinken likewise warned Zelenskyy that a ground invasion was coming. The Ukrainian president was aware of the Russian troops just across the border, but he doubted Putin planned an invasion. Others, including Swedish intelligence officials, were equally skeptical of US information about an impending incursion. In an unusual step, the Pentagon used the media to warn the world of Putin’s plans. On December 3, 2021, a Washington Post headline read, “Russia Planning Massive Military Offensive Against Ukraine Involving 175,000 Troops, US Intelligence Warns.”

On February 24, 2022, Putin began his invasion.

Russian forces bombed Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, and Kharkiv, the nation’s second-largest city. Putin appeared on television to announce “a special military operation” and reminded the world that he still controlled nuclear weapons. The outlook for Ukraine seemed dire. Russian troops invaded from several directions — Belarus in the north, the Donbas region in the east, and Crimea to the south. Zelenskyy contacted Biden, who offered to set up a temporary Ukrainian capital in Poland. Zelenskyy said he was staying in Kyiv but asked the United States for a no-fly zone protecting Ukraine. Biden declined — a no-fly zone would require the US and NATO to shoot down Russian aircraft, bringing America more deeply into the conflict.

“The Ukrainians had forced the second most powerful military in the world to retreat, shattering the image of Russia as a fiercely capable fighting force.”

While everyone expected Russia to overpower Ukraine quickly, that’s not what happened, partly because Ukrainian grit carried the day. When the Russians attempted to capture a significant cargo airport near Kyiv, locals thwarted them. A Ukrainian general noted that “regular dudes with track pants and hunting rifles” put up quite the defense. Russia made other tactical errors. Russian forces successfully seized the Chernobyl nuclear plant but sacrificed troops by routing them through the most toxic area near the reactor. Russian helicopter pilots flew during the day, making themselves easy targets. Ukrainian troops hobbled Russian convoys by hitting the first and last vehicles and the fuel trucks. Putin’s calculations proved flawed in other ways, too. Europe and the United States united in imposing severe sanctions on Moscow. In Finland, just one-quarter of the populace wanted to join NATO before the invasion; afterward, that share tripled.

With his invasion going poorly, Putin began hinting at the possibility of using nuclear weapons against Ukrainian forces. US intelligence agencies were reporting to President Biden on credible conversations occurring inside the Kremin. “On all channels, get on the line with the Russians,” Biden directed. In October 2022, Biden’s defense secretary, Lloyd Austin, contacted Putin’s defense minister, Sergei Shoigu. Austin made it clear that any use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine would provoke a direct US response. Shoigu, who had no military experience and whose primary qualification was loyalty to Putin, responded that he didn’t like being “threatened.” “I am the leader of the most powerful military in the history of the world,” Austin replied. “I don’t make threats.”

In October 2023, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel.

During the Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah, Palestinian militants launched thousands of rockets into Israel. Then, Hamas soldiers moved into southern Israel and stormed into several kibbutz communities, killing men, women, children — even babies. Another set of militants attacked attendees at a music festival near the Gaza border. The soldiers didn’t just kill the unarmed young people, witnesses stated; they brutalized their bodies. The invaders left behind telltale signs of rape — dead girls and women tied to trees, some with objects in their private parts. They also brought people from Israel into Gaza as hostages. Biden quickly got on the phone with Netanyahu. The Israeli prime minister was confident his forces could defeat Hamas, but he worried about an attack from the north by Hezbollah, a Lebanese group backed by Iran.

“Hamas shot, beheaded, immolated, dismembered, and burned Israelis alive.”

Over the next few days, Israel tallied its losses: Hamas had killed 1,200 people and captured 240 hostages. It also became clear that Hamas had done a masterful job of disguising its intentions. Israeli intelligence analysts thought they had reached an uneasy peace with the Hamas militants. Hamas was able to keep a lid on its plan by making the invasion a surprise for even its own troops. Until the last second, the 3,000 militants who invaded Israel thought they were engaging in a training exercise. From Netanyahu’s perspective, Middle Eastern politics was all about projecting strength: The only way for Israel to fend off further attacks was to annihilate Hamas.

Biden strongly discouraged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from attacking Hezbollah.

On October 11, just four days after the Hamas attack, Netanyahu told Biden that he wanted to take out Hezbollah’s arsenal of 150,000 rockets aimed at Israel. Biden was unconvinced. He told Netanyahu that at least some of the Hezbollah bombs would detonate in Israel. More troubling, an Israeli attack on Hezbollah would almost certainly turn into a direct conflict between Israel and Iran.

“Biden knew an Israeli-Hezbollah war would likely explode into an Israel-Iran war.”

While Netanyahu argued that striking Hezbollah first would forestall a wider war, American intelligence officials didn’t believe Hezbollah was about to attack. And although Biden assured Netanyahu that the United States would support Israel if Iran attacked, he had no intention of getting behind a preemptive conflict instigated by Israel. Closing the call, Biden leaned into his decades-long relationship with Netanyahu. “This is a mistake,” Biden said. “Do not go down this road.” Despite Biden’s strong words, many Israeli leaders still leaned toward launching an attack. Rumors circulated on social media that Hezbollah was invading from the north, but the Israeli Defense Forces announced this information was false, and the nation’s cabinet voted against attacking Lebanon.

After Biden staved off a preemptive attack on Hezbollah, his administration turned toward softening Israel’s response to the invasion.

Israel’s bombing of Gaza meant Palestinian civilians were going without food or medical care. Blinken arrived in Tel Aviv on October 16 and asked Netanyahu to provide humanitarian aid. Netanyahu’s response was blunt: “The people of Israel will not tolerate giving these Nazis aid if we have not completely destroyed Hamas.” Blinken finally convinced the Israeli leadership to provide food and water to Palestinian civilians.

“Bibi said he wanted the assistance to start going in after Biden’s visit so it looked like the president made him do it. Bibi said that would give him the political coverage and leverage he urgently needed with Israel’s cabinet and the Israeli public.”

Meanwhile, while Biden was planning a trip to Israel, a bomb hit a hospital in Gaza, causing 500 deaths. Initial reports blamed Israel, though Netanyahu insisted it was a Hamas rocket. Though some argued Biden should cancel his visit, Blinken argued that doing so would be tantamount to calling the Israelis liars. En route to Israel, US intelligence confirmed Palestinian jihadists had indeed launched the rocket — though they did not intend to hit the hospital. Still, public sympathy was shifting against Israel. Biden knew he had to strike the right tone with Netanyahu: supportive of Israel but clear that the United States would not support plans to block all aid until all the hostages were freed. Ultimately, he persuaded Egypt to allow a convoy of trucks carrying humanitarian aid to enter Gaza from the south.

As Biden leaves office, both conflicts remain unresolved.

On July 21, 2024, Biden decided not to seek re-election and threw his support behind Vice President Kamala Harris. Just a few days after Biden’s shocking announcement, Harris met with Netanyahu in Washington. “I’m disturbed by the humanitarian situation in Gaza,” she told the Israeli leader. Netanyahu pushed back. No one in Gaza was starving, he argued, and those who were going hungry had Hamas to thank for looting the aid deliveries. Though Harris agreed in that meeting that perceptions might not reflect reality, she spoke harshly to the press about Israel’s tactics in Gaza — catching Netanyahu off guard.

“Based on the evidence available now, I believe President Biden and his team will be largely studied in history as an example of steady and purposeful leadership.”

As the run-up to the US election continued, the situation in the Middle East remained fraught. In mid-2024, Israel killed Hezbollah’s top military commander. The problem? Israel’s strike in a Beirut suburb also resulted in three civilian deaths and more than 70 injured. Biden was incensed. Hours after that attack, Israel killed a Hamas leader while he was in Tehran. Biden warned Netanyahu that such aggressive actions were turning Israel into a “rogue state.”Some presidencies are defined by their dishonesty and abuse of power. The author found Biden’s administration exceptional in that it seemed genuine in its desire to act in “good faith” and govern in ways that served the American people well. Though the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine are ongoing as Biden leaves office, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan notes that Biden managed to preserve America’s national safety — arguably a president’s primary directive.

About the Author

Bob Woodward is the author of three consecutive number-one New York Times bestsellers – Fear, Rage, and Peril. He is the author of 22 bestselling books.