Learn about the judgmental forecasting model used by HR directors to predict future staffing requirements based on past and present data. Prepare for the SHRM-SCP certification exam.
Table of Contents
Question
Which model is being used by and HR director who analyzes reports from the past and the present to determine future staffing needs?
Answer
Judgmental forecasts. Judgmental forecasts work two ways: from the top down or the bottom up. The success of this method is entirely dependent upon the quality of the information used in making the estimates.
Explanation
The HR director who analyzes past and present reports to forecast future staffing needs is using the judgmental forecasting model.
Judgmental forecasting relies on the expertise, experience and judgment of the HR professional or management team to make staffing projections. It involves reviewing historical data and trends, assessing the current situation, and then estimating headcount requirements for the future based on this information.
There are two main approaches to judgmental forecasting:
- Top-down approach: Senior management provides high-level estimates of future staffing levels needed to achieve business goals. These estimates are then broken down by department or function.
- Bottom-up approach: Line managers and department heads forecast their own staffing needs based on anticipated workload and projects. These individual projections are then rolled up to create an overall headcount plan.
The accuracy of judgmental forecasts depends heavily on the quality and comprehensiveness of the past and present data being analyzed, as well as the expertise of those making the estimates. Forecasts should consider factors like projected business growth, turnover rates, process changes, productivity trends, and skill requirements.
While judgmental forecasting taps into valuable human insight, it can be subject to individual biases and assumptions. Therefore, it is often used in combination with more quantitative demand forecasting techniques to generate robust staffing plans.
In summary, an HR director using reports from the past and present to predict future staffing needs is applying the judgmental forecasting model, which harnesses human expertise to turn historical data into forward-looking headcount projections. The success of this approach hinges on the accuracy of the information analyzed and the soundness of the estimates made.
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