Summary: From Malthus to Mars: How to Live, Lead, and Learn in an Exponential World by Lars Tvede and Nicolai Chen Nielsen

Recommendation

Over the last 200 years, the pace of change has accelerated to a mind-boggling speed, and it’s unlikely to slow down. The exponential growth of human innovation means that your life in 10 years’ time is likely to look very different from how it does today. If this seems like a scary thought, futurists Lars Tvede and Nicolai Chen Nielsen will put your mind at rest. Their whistle-stop tour of humanity’s possible future depicts a world of abundance. On top of that, they equip you with all the tools you need to embrace and successfully navigate whatever’s coming your way.

Take-Aways

• The majority of human innovation has taken place in less than 1% of human history.
• Going from standstill to innovation requires five critical elements: compact units, cooperative networks, common codes, change agents and competition.
• Innovation is unlikely to stop any time soon because of three innovation accelerators: connectivity, combinatorial explosions and computerization.
• Contrary to Malthus’s prediction, humanity is moving toward a world of abundance.
• Survival in the complex world of rapid innovation and change requires interdependence.
• Cultivating a beginner’s mind-set will help you to make “future-fit” decisions.
• Organizations need to be clear about their purpose and values if they want to attract talent in the future.
• Organizational strategic planning needs to change from setting the destination to setting the direction.
• In order to succeed, organizations must learn to act with speed, fluidity and flexibility.

Summary

The majority of human innovation has taken place in less than 1% of human history.

For most of human history, very little innovation happened and there was very little growth in GDP per capita. This type of economy is called a “Malthusian economy,” after the priest Thomas Malthus, who claimed that, at some point, Earth’s human population would outgrow food production and therefore face mass starvation. However, his prediction did not come true. People managed to escape the “Malthusian Trap” when the “Great Divergence” happened: Starting around 1450, certain areas in Western Europe saw an exponential increase in living standards. Events that spurred this growth included the Renaissance, the Reformation, the Enlightenment, the Industrial Revolution and the “Social Networking Revolution” – all of which promoted the dissemination of knowledge and creativity.

“Over a period of 2,750 years, 1% of the global population living on 0.1% of the landmass performed approximately half of all attributed accomplishment or innovation!”

During peak growth periods, many “10x technologies” appeared. These technologies solve a problem 10 times better than the previous solution. For example, the introduction of the Gutenberg printing press meant that the price of a Bible dropped from 300 florins to 30 florins. Ten-times technologies often remove intermediaries between those who produce goods and services and those who buy them, thereby helping people become more independent.

Going from standstill to innovation requires five critical elements: compact units, cooperative networks, common codes, change agents and competition.

A comparison of North and South Korea shows that the mind-set and organization model you embrace can either promote or hinder progress and innovation.

“To this day, there is still a completely disproportionate concentration of wealth along traditional trade routes throughout the world because that is where you can make the most win-win transactions and thus become hyper-social.”

Five critical elements help promote innovation:

• “Compact units” – Smaller units are better at coming up with creative ideas. When you’re part of a compact unit, you can make decisions based on your own insights into a situation or problem, and you can feel the consequences of your decision fairly quickly. This means you and your unit can “fail fast-forward” and learn quickly from missteps.
• “Cooperative networks” – Networks are essential for creating new connections and ideas. They can lead to win-win transactions (i.e. cooperation), which, in turn, lead to exponential growth. Generally, people who are good at enabling win-win transactions come out on top in competitive situations. Extensive cooperation between people is called “hyper-sociality.”
• “Common codes” – Cooperation, for example through trade, requires common codes. Money is one kind of common code, as are different standardized measurements or container sizes, and trade standards and agreements.
• “Change agents” – Spontaneous change leads to progress. For example, climate change led to the development of specific, well-adapted gene pools. Things such as free trade, free media and free social interaction enable constant change.
• “Competition” – Competition helps to weed out bad ideas and promote good ones. Extreme competition can accelerate innovation, as the COVID-19 pandemic showed. The competition between humans and the virus resulted in the incredibly fast development of a vaccine, as well as in mutations in the virus.

When these Five Cs are present, an initial spark is the only thing needed to trigger innovation.

Innovation is unlikely to stop any time soon because of three innovation accelerators: connectivity, combinatorial explosions and computerization.

Connectivity creates hyper-sociality and causes new ideas and technologies to spread quickly around the world. Think about how quickly a YouTube or TikTok video can go viral because people share it through social media. This connectivity increases the effectiveness of all Five Cs: There are more individual compact units, cooperative networks can work together globally and in real time, and global common codes open the doors for change agents and competition.

“Innovation is, to all practical intents and purposes, endless and limited only by the laws of physics.”

Combinatorial explosions happen when people combine existing things in new ways. The more knowledge and innovation (i.e. “building blocks”) there are, the higher the number of possible new combinations. For example, digital photography took off when it combined with digital storage, cloud computing and social media.

Often, new technologies are disappointing at the start, because people haven’t found the right application for them yet. For example, without any content to broadcast, TV broadcast technology wouldn’t have any effect. Many 10x innovations are a combination of digitization and automation, which computerization can accelerate. Things such as artificial intelligence, robotics, the Internet of Things, and virtual and augmented reality all help to create new combinations of innovations and technologies – a process called “coevolution.”

Contrary to Malthus’s prediction, humanity is moving toward a world of abundance.

Many people still believe that the world’s resources can’t support continued population growth. Yet innovation leads to exponential growth. For example, people can fight global warming due to humanity’s energy consumption and the emission of greenhouse gases by combining innovations in energy-efficient measures, carbon capture and storage technologies, and the production, movement and storage of energy. If scientists find a way to make nuclear fusion work commercially, humanity will have access to clean and safe power for millions, if not billions, of years. Based on current trends, people could see successful sustained nuclear fusion in an experimental reactor by 2025 and the first economically viable commercial fusion power plant by 2033.

“We are increasingly living in what we could call a precision economy, where things become ever smarter and more compact – and increasingly created rather than extracted.”

Similarly, advances in the field of compact food production will reduce the amount of land needed for agriculture and thereby help increase biodiversity and improve the climate. For example, vertical farming, which is growing crops in vertical stacks in controlled indoor environments, requires less land and water, and reduces the presence of pests. Switzerland is currently planning farms in abandoned limestone mines, which could feed around 7,000 people annually.

Survival in the complex world of rapid innovation and change requires interdependence.

To successfully navigate the increasingly complex world brought about by exponential innovation, you need to become what Stephen Covey calls an “interdependent person.” A human life has three stages: dependence, independence and interdependence. Some people fail to move from dependence to independence, meaning they’re incapable of taking responsibility for their own lives and actions.

“As social structures and norms around us dissolve, it is up to us to define what we want with our lives and, more importantly, to take responsibility for getting there.”

You can spot if you haven’t moved on from the dependence stage if you find yourself regularly playing one of the roles in the Karpman drama triangle:

1. “Rescuer” – You’re constantly looking for people to rescue. You find fulfillment in “saving” others.
2. “Persecutor” – You tend to blame others for everything that happens in your life and your own lack of progress.
3. “Victim” – You feel like a victim, and you want someone to rescue you.

An independent person takes ownership of his or her life, and sets and works towards goals. Yet to become truly successful in the world of the future, you need to go one step further and become interdependent. You need to be able to cooperate with others and contribute to hyper-sociality. To do that, you need to get to know yourself and others; be clear about your ethical stance and values; and move from an external to an internal locus of control. Having an internal locus of control means assuming that you’re in control of your life and can influence its course. This is called an “ownership mind-set.”

Cultivating a beginner’s mind-set will help you to make “future-fit” decisions.

Many situations you’ll face in today’s world might be complex or even chaotic. Making decisions in these kinds of contexts can be extremely difficult. In such environments, many of your existing biases, such as your cognitive bias, confirmation bias, in-group bias or confidence bias, are likely to become stronger, causing you to make poor decisions.

“Though humans typically enjoy learning, we are not very good at changing our beliefs when presented with new information.”

One of the most useful things you can do to ensure you’re making the best decision possible with the information available is to learn how to be a learner. This includes always checking your data and any claims – particularly the ones in which you place the most confidence. Be open to the possibility of being wrong and acknowledge that you’ve got biases. Cultivate a mind-set in which you consider every situation and conversation as a way to learn something new, and practice non-judgmental awareness.

Organizations need to be clear about their purpose and values if they want to attract talent in the future.

Organizations need to understand expected changes in order to respond to them and remain relevant and competitive. They need to move from long-term strategic planning to direction-setting; from mass production to personalized products and services; from hierarchical structures to flexible and fluid “flow-to-work” models. They need to move from innovation as a separate activity to something that’s central to the business, and from just-in-case formal training and learning to just-in-time learning.

“A McKinsey survey found that almost 75% of employees state that purpose should receive more weight than profits.”

Also, generic purpose statements and corporate social responsibility (CSR) as an add-on will no longer suffice. Increasingly, employees and customers will choose to work for and buy from businesses that live their purpose and embed CSR in everything that they do. Your personal brand and actions must, likewise, be consistent with your values. In this highly connected world, any misalignment and hypocrisy is likely to come to light and damage your reputation.

Organizational strategic planning needs to change from setting the destination to setting the direction.

Strategic planning remains one of the most important tasks for organizations. A lot of organizations still approach strategy as a three- to five-year plan, with fixed targets, budgets and road maps. However, the exponential growth of innovation means that an organization’s external environment can change rapidly. Organizations need to create strategies that allow them to respond to these changes. Traditional strategic planning tools need to sit alongside exponential thinking, process decentralization, and flexible budgets and targets.

“The biggest risk is when strategy begins to take on a life of its own, when ‘sticking to the budget’ becomes the all-important objective, instead of learning and adapting as you go.”

Setting a direction rather than a specific destination will allow you to adjust your plans along the way. Moving from batch to flow delivery means fast feedback and learning cycles, and enables organizations to adapt their strategy in response to what they’ve learned. One mistake many organizations make is that they shy away from bold transformations. Rather than focusing on incremental shifts or improvements to existing products or organizational structure, companies need to be prepared to radically change their service offering in response to external changes.

In order to succeed, organizations must learn to act with speed, fluidity and flexibility.

Only a quarter of organizational restructures achieve the success they seek, because often, they don’t remove strong hierarchies and command structures, are overly tied to a specific strategic goal, don’t take into account how people actually do their jobs, and are process-driven with no scope for deviating from or adjusting the plan. With the increasing pace of change, organizations need to become “Triple-F” organizations: fast, fluid and flexible.

“Leading organizations build flexibility into the very DNA or their structure so that any employee can join new work assignments as they emerge.”

Flattening hierarchical structures, and thereby bringing your decision-making closer to the people who actually do the job, can help with this. Another approach is to change your structure to a flow-to-work model, where employees work as part of cross-functional teams on a project basis. For example, you can create an internal “gig economy,” where employees offer their skills and experiences and can join projects for a specific time period. Unilever, for example, created an AI-driven internal marketplace that allows employees to join projects across the organization. This has helped Unilever to address skills gaps, develop talent, achieve fast-moving business goals and increase staff retention.

About the Authors

Lars Tvede is an investor, serial entrepreneur and futurist. Nicolai Chen Nielsen is an entrepreneur, educator and adviser on leadership development, personal growth and organizations of the future. He is also the co-author of Return on Ambition.

Review

“From Malthus to Mars: How to Live, Lead, and Learn in an Exponential World” is a book written by Lars Tvede and Nicolai Chen Nielsen that examines the impact of exponential technologies on society and provides guidance on how individuals, organizations, and governments can thrive in a rapidly changing world.

The book begins by exploring the concept of exponential growth and how it has shaped human history, from the agricultural revolution to the digital age. The authors argue that we are currently experiencing an unprecedented period of exponential growth, driven by technologies such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and robotics. They suggest that this growth will continue to accelerate, leading to profound changes in how we live, work, and interact with one another.

Tvede and Nielsen then turn their attention to the challenges and opportunities presented by this exponential world. They argue that while technology has the potential to solve many of the world’s problems, it also creates new challenges, such as job displacement, inequality, and environmental degradation. They emphasize the need for proactive leadership and collaborative problem-solving to address these challenges.

The book’s second part focuses on how individuals can thrive in an exponential world. The authors suggest that the key to success is to cultivate a mindset of lifelong learning and adaptability, as well as to develop skills such as creativity, collaboration, and emotional intelligence. They also emphasize the importance of embracing change and taking calculated risks.

The third part of the book examines how organizations can navigate the exponential world. The authors argue that traditional business models are no longer effective in today’s fast-changing environment and that companies must adopt a more flexible, agile approach to innovation and management. They suggest that organizations should focus on building ecosystems rather than hierarchies, and that they should prioritize experimentation, collaboration, and continuous learning.

Finally, the book turns to the role of government in an exponential world. The authors argue that governments must also adapt to the changing pace of technological innovation and that they must work closely with businesses, civil society, and individuals to create an environment that fosters innovation and addresses the challenges of exponential growth.

Throughout the book, Tvede and Nielsen provide numerous case studies and examples to illustrate their points, drawing on a wide range of industries and sectors. They also offer practical tools and strategies for individuals, organizations, and governments looking to thrive in an exponential world.

Overall, “From Malthus to Mars” is a thought-provoking and insightful guide to navigating the complexities of an exponential world. The authors provide a comprehensive analysis of the challenges and opportunities presented by technological growth and offer practical advice for individuals, organizations, and governments looking to adapt and thrive in a rapidly changing environment.

In summary, the book provides a detailed analysis of the impact of exponential technologies on society and offers guidance on how individuals, organizations, and governments can adapt and thrive in a rapidly changing world. It emphasizes the need for lifelong learning, adaptability, creativity, collaboration, and emotional intelligence, as well as the importance of embracing change and taking calculated risks. The book also highlights the need for proactive leadership and collaborative problem-solving to address the challenges of exponential growth.

In terms of its strengths, the book is well-researched and well-written, with clear and concise language that makes it accessible to a wide range of readers. The authors provide numerous examples and case studies to illustrate their points, making the book feel relevant and practical. The book’s focus on the interconnectedness of technological, societal, and environmental factors is also a major strength, providing a comprehensive perspective on the challenges and opportunities of an exponential world.

One potential weakness of the book is that it may be too focused on the potential benefits of technology, without fully exploring the potential risks and downsides of exponential growth. Additionally, some readers may find the book’s emphasis on the need for adaptability and lifelong learning to be somewhat daunting, as it may suggest that individuals must constantly be learning and changing in order to stay relevant in an exponential world.

Overall, “From Malthus to Mars” is a valuable resource for anyone looking to understand and navigate the complexities of an exponential world. Its comprehensive analysis and practical guidance make it an excellent choice for individuals, organizations, and governments looking to thrive in a rapidly changing environment.